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EXPLAINED: 3 | Vintage Vibes

Minnesota Law Banning Prediction Markets Creates Victimless Crime

A Minnesota senator got fined for insider trading on a prediction market. His response was to ban the platforms for everyone in the state.

Reason

Americans expected to wager more than $3B on the World Cup – surpassing Super Bowl

The tournament is expected to generate about $3.1 billion in U.S. online sports bets, with prediction markets adding another $2.4 billion

The Independent UK

Will the House ban staff from prediction markets? These members aren’t waiting

As the House faces growing calls to ban trading on prediction markets by members and staff, some are taking things into their own hands. When Rep. Seth Moulton, D-Mass., announced a new internal policy for his office in March, he described it as a way to make a stand as…

Roll Call

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Prediction market Kalshi to give $2m to problem gambling group as it fights ‘gambling’ label

Kalshi announces two-year investment to National Council on Problem Gambling ‘focused on trader health and safety’

The Guardian - US

Kalshi, Polymarket defy India ban on online betting platforms

Despite India's technology ministry warning that prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi are illegal, customers in India continue to trade. A new law banning "online money games" went into effect May 1, yet these platforms are still accessible, with some users circumventing blocks.

The Economic Times

Senators banned themselves from prediction markets. Will the House?

Support is growing for a rules change in the House that would bar members of Congress and their staff from trading on prediction markets. Senators adopted their own resolution at the end of last month by unanimous consent, revising the standing rules of the Senate to ban buying and selling…

Roll Call

Marco Rubio Becomes Surprise Front-Runner in 2028 Presidential Betting Market

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has become the betting favorite to win the 2028 presidential election on the prediction market platform Kalshi, a striking political development that underscores his growing influence inside President Donald Trump's administration.

Latin Times

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The Prediction Market That Doesn't Take Your Money

As regulators across Europe move to ban Polymarket and Kalshi as unlicensed gambling, a New York-based startup is testing whether prediction markets can work without user wagers at all — and quietly positioning itself to inherit the markets its competitors are being expelled from.

International Business Times

Keep quiet ‘so we don’t go to jail’: the Israelis charged with bribery after suspicious bets placed on Iran strikes

Authorities allege that Omer Ziv and an unnamed air force major used classified information to bet on the timing of military operations on Polymarket

The Guardian - US

Everyone is losing on ‘sucker-bet’ laden prediction markets except a few seasoned pros

Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi have seen a huge surge in business - but there are growing calls for greater regulation

The Independent UK

Exclusive: Kalshi announces steps to keep kids off prediction market

The prediction market is implementing new tools to prevent minors from trading, but is resisting calls to block ages 18-20.

Axios

The Federal Government Once Tried To Restrict Prediction Markets. Now It's Suing States To Save Them.

In a bid to “reaffirm its exclusive jurisdiction” over prediction markets such as Kalshi, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission is suing six states for interfering in federally regulated financial markets.

Reason

SEON CEO: Prediction markets can forecast the future. Can they survive their own manipulation problem?

The prediction markets supercycle has outpaced its regulatory infrastructure — and the next 12 months of CFTC rulemaking will determine

Fortune

Dan Patrick eyes closing “gambling loophole” for prediction markets. The feds stand in Texas’ way.

A Trump administration agency has sued other states that sought to regulate Kalshi, Polymarket and other prediction operations under their gambling laws.

The Texas Tribune

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International Business Times UK

Will George RR Martin Release The Winds of Winter in 2026? Fans Warned by Grim Market Odds

Real‑money traders on US platform Kalshi now imply just an 11% chance that George RR Martin will announce a release date for The Winds of Winter by the end of 2026.

Fortune

Kalshi and Polymarket are racing to ban insider trading. The economist who built the theory behind prediction markets says it's the whole point

"You want the most accurate prices. That's pretty clear. The purpose of the market is to inform decisions."

The Independent UK

US gambling addiction is ‘out of control’ and requires a public health response, experts say

48% of men aged 18 to 49 had an account with at least one sports betting platform, according to one study

The Independent UK

Republicans are already calling on Trump to pardon special forces soldier accused of betting on Maduro’s capture

Anna Paulina Luna sys DOJ should prosecute ‘crooks in Congress’ next after service member accused of raking in more than $400,000

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The Guardian - US

US soldier involved in Maduro raid charged over alleged bets on capture

Gannon Ken Van Dyke, who allegedly made more than $400,000 on Polymarket, could face up to 60 years in prison

Roll Call

At the Races: Never-ending redistricting

Welcome to At the Races! Each week we bring you news and analysis from the CQ Roll Call campaign team. Know someone who’d like to get this newsletter? They can subscribe here. Redistricting has already thrown a long shadow over the 2026 midterm elections, and we’re not done yet. As our colleague…

The Independent UK

Politician defends betting on own election after Kalshi prediction market suspension

IN FULL

The Independent UK

Prediction market Kalshi suspends three political candidates for betting on their own races

Kalshi’s enforcement and legal counsel said two of the financial penalties were settlements, while one was disciplinary action

The Guardian - US

Prediction site Kalshi fines three US candidates who bet on own elections

Disclosures come after firm tightened rules on insider trading, including candidates betting on own campaigns

The Texas Tribune

Texas Republican candidate suspended by Kalshi for betting on his own election

Zeke Enriquez, who ran in the GOP primary for Texas’ 21st Congressional District, was fined and barred from the prediction market platform for five years. Two candidates in other states were suspended for the same offense.

Fortune

Investors are valuing Polymarket at a discount to archrival Kalshi—and its crypto ties could be one reason why

Polymarket is fundraising at a reported $15 billion valuation, while Kalshi was last valued at $22 billion.

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